Ukraine war is hurting Africa – time to take sides

The chief within the September 2023 challenge of New African journal, by the editor Anver Versi and titled “Is Russia a real good friend of Africa?” has inspired me to place ahead some reflections that I imagine could also be of use to the continent’s coverage makers going ahead.

Within the chief, Versi raised two very essential factors which are having existential impacts on Africa, its future growth trajectory and the destiny of its burgeoning younger inhabitants. 

He identified that the UN Sustainable Improvement Objectives, set in 2015, have misplaced their means at this half means level (solely 12% have been achieved) and that in 2022, over 20m folks and a minimum of 10m youngsters confronted extreme meals scarcity in Africa. 

“The ECA calculates that Africa’s annual meals imports invoice, which was $15bn in 2018, will enhance from the present $43bn to $110bn by 2025,” he writes.

In response to UNCTAD, creating international locations face a $4 trillion annual financing hole in attaining the SDGs and it’ll solely enhance on account of the battle in Ukraine. These are very worrying figures for a area that’s nonetheless very younger in its growth trajectory and that wants all its assets, together with its human assets to be working at peak to be able to transfer up the event scale as required by the UN SDGs. 

The elimination of starvation could be very excessive up the checklist of priorities as a result of with out ample meals, no growth is feasible. As a substitute there’s a distinct chance that the continent might spiral right into a vicious vortex and all of the spectacular growth it has achieved to this point will likely be erased.

This very distinct chance has induced me – as I’m certain it has many different folks inside and with out Africa’s borders – sleepless nights.

I’m additionally conscious that following the financial blows many African international locations suffered in the course of the Covid-pandemic lockdowns, a number of nations are debt distressed. They’re being pressured to allocate very substantial quantities of their assets to debt servicing. 

What’s extra, they’re discovering it inconceivable to borrow because the sequence of crises tightens the monetary flows and rates of interest proceed to rise. Whereas wealthy international locations are in a position to borrow at 1%-4%, on common, poor international locations must pay over 14% for loans. Which means their capability to purchase meals for his or her populations has been drastically decreased. Barbadian PM Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown initiative may assist Africa sort out these challenges.

Versi additionally says that one of the crucial vital causes of the present price of dwelling disaster in Africa, “which many regard as a Black Swan – sudden and on this case caused not by uncontrollable elements reminiscent of epidemics or local weather change however from human alternative – has been Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

He says that whereas many African international locations who regard the battle as a purely European challenge “haven’t any canine within the battle,” what ought to concern us all is “the impression of the battle on Africa’s essential meals safety scenario. And on this case, we do have a canine within the battle.”

Versi could also be cautious in his strategy and I wish to go additional. 

What I’m involved about is the impression of the battle on Africa’s growth and, extra instantly, the essential meals safety scenario. 

Earlier than the battle, Ukraine and Russia exported greater than 36% of the world’s wheat, about 50% of its vegetable oils and 28% of the worldwide provide of fertilizer. These kind the cornerstone of vitamin and meals manufacturing. 

Ukraine provided 12% of Africa’s meals wants whereas Russia’s contribution was round 32% that means that just about half of Africa’s grain imports got here from the area. 

Damaged meals chains

Because the battle in 2022, meals provides from Ukraine nearly disappeared whereas Russian exports grew to become unreliable because of the exigencies of the battle. This was a physique blow to the worldwide meals provide chain and despatched costs rocketing. As at all times, the burden fell most closely on poor international locations, a lot of them in Africa.

Following appreciable diplomatic stress and negotiations behind the scenes, each international locations agreed the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), which permitted agricultural exports from three ports in Odesa area in south Ukraine and at enabled each international locations to proceed exporting by way of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Some grain from Ukraine was exported overland.

This allowed hard-pressed international locations and meals reduction NGOs to convey some measure of reduction to tens of millions in Africa and in addition damped down world meals costs. 

Then lower than a yr later, Russia withdrew from the deal. Each international locations made threats in opposition to one another’s ports, additional disrupting provide chains. 

Russia later bombed Ukrainian ports and it’s believed, granaries, additional impacting meals costs around the globe. In Africa, the impression was felt instantly as meals costs shot up. The financial crunch is resulting in an escalation of social unrest. 

Confronted with the prospects of starvation on a big scale, the African Union urged Russia’s President Putin to restart BSGI to assist alleviate the struggling attributable to its withdrawal.

As a substitute, Putin, addressing some 17 African Heads of State who attended the Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg in July this yr, mentioned he would make good the shortfall from the Ukraine provide and promised to ship 50,000 tons of grain assist to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic – international locations he felt had been most in want of assist. 

He boasted that Russia had loved a bumper harvest. One would have anticipated that he would have pledged a far bigger amount of grain to Africa and would have taken the chance to restart the BSGI and convey some financial stability, significantly to the creating world.

Time to decide on

The Ukraine-Russia battle is prone to final for a very long time. Except we play our position and name for motion.

Some international locations, reminiscent of Kenya, have engaged positively with Ukraine. President William Ruto made a degree of assembly President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York Metropolis in the course of the United Nations Common Meeting – UNGA 2023.

He pledged his help for the Ukrainian trigger and revealed that his counterpart has dedicated to making a grain hub within the port metropolis of Mombasa. 

However some international locations have proven robust help for Russia, maybe out of a way of loyalty, or to make sure their vitality provides usually are not compromised.

Africa has to make a stand and it’s my opinion that it is going to be within the curiosity of the continent to convey stress on Putin to stop this battle of alternative as quickly as doable.

There’s a ethical case to contemplate. Russia invaded Ukraine. There is no such thing as a doubt about that. Africa, having tasted the bitter expertise of being invaded itself, can’t facet with an invader, it doesn’t matter what excuse is most well-liked.

Russia’s commerce (other than grains) and different international locations is negligible as compared with the West. The West is the biggest investor in Africa; Russia has hardly any investments to talk about. The G7 has dedicated to spend 0.07% of its annual GDP on assist and lots of international locations have achieved this, far outstripping assist from Russia.

I’m involved that some African international locations usually are not being clear-eyed about the place the continent’s pursuits – whether or not financial, ethical or by way of safety – lie and are permitting themselves to pushed into corners that may turn out to be much more uncomfortable as time rolls on. 

Africa goes by a significant disaster on all fronts – it wants strong, dependable buddies with whom it might negotiate on an equal foundation. Russia isn’t that good friend and the earlier Africa realises it, the higher for all of us. n

Tebogo Khaas is the founder and chairperson of Public Curiosity SA. Public Curiosity SA NPC is a number one advocate for ethics, social justice, and transparency in South Africa. Comprised of devoted people from numerous backgrounds, the workforce at Public Curiosity SA works tirelessly to advertise moral citizenship, tackle urgent societal points, and contribute to the betterment of our world.