The leaders of the Maghreb have at all times insisted on the institution of a Better Maghreb. Past the present upheavals, what’s the significance of this financial space?
The international locations of the Better Maghreb shouldn’t have a homogeneous financial system. Some are power importers and the rise in costs has repercussions on their unstable exterior accounts, as is the case with Morocco, Tunisia and Mauritania. For the latter, this could change this yr due to the numerous fuel discoveries being exploited with Senegal.
Algeria and Libya, hydrocarbon exporting international locations, get pleasure from an earnings that enables them to have beneficial monetary accounts.
The primary commerce flows of the 5 Maghreb international locations are in direction of Europe and extra usually in direction of the West, however with a major breakthrough in China. The intra-Maghreb integration charge of three% in 2023 could be very low, and the intra-African integration charge of 15% is itself fairly low.
Essential financial indicators for the Maghreb international locations
Algeria
For a inhabitants of 47.78 million on 1 January 2024, the IMF forecasts a GDP at present costs of $270 billion in 2024, $326 billion in 2026, and $370 billion in 2027. The expansion charge for 2023 was 4.2%, with a forecast of three.8% in 2024 and three.1% in 2025.
Overseas trade reserves on the finish of January 2023 have been $70 billion and round $83 billion together with 173 tonnes of gold. Exterior debt is low at lower than 2% of GDP. Total public debt rose from 45.6% of GDP in 2019 to 51.4% in 2020, 56.1% in 2021, 55.6% in 2022, 49.5% in 2023 and 47% in 2024.
Morocco
For a inhabitants of 37.77 million, Morocco’s GDP development, in keeping with the IMF, was 2.8% in 2023 with estimates of three.1% in 2024 and three.3% in 2025. GDP is anticipated to achieve $197.9 billion in 2023 and $193.2 billion in 2024. In keeping with Bpifrance, the general public debt in relation to GDP was 72.2% in 2020, 71.5% in 2022, and 69.7% in 2023 with a forecast of 68.1% in 2024. The exterior debt to GDP ratio is 54% in 2021, 51% in 2022-2023 and an estimated 44% for 2024. In keeping with World Analysis, reserves reached 363 billion dirhams in March 2023, or $35.5 billion, together with 22 tonnes of gold.
Tunisia
For a inhabitants of 12.54 million as of 1 January 2024, Tunisia’s GDP in 2023 was $46.3 billion (+0.6%); development is anticipated to achieve 2.2% in 2024. The exterior debt in relation to GDP fell from 96% in 2021 to 90.8% in 2022, then to 86.4% in 2023 with a forecast of 86.3% in 2024.
Overseas trade reserves have been $4.2 billion in 2021, $3.2 billion in 2022, $3.5 billion in 2023 with a forecast of $3.2 billion in 2024. Public debt represented 80.2% of GDP in 2023, with a forecast of 79.8% in 2024.
Libya
With a inhabitants of 6.95 million, Libya has the biggest oil reserves in Africa, round 43 billion barrels. For the reason that starting of April 2024, it has been the main producer in Africa with 1.24 million barrels/day, dethroning Nigeria, and has little-exploited typical fuel reserves of round 1,500 billion cubic metres. Libya has a GDP of $47 billion with development of 12% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022, 9% in 2023 and eight.0% in 2024 due to the restoration of the hydrocarbon sector.
In keeping with the World Financial institution, the present surplus, which reached 21% of GDP in 2022, was decreased to 7.8% of GDP in 2023. Public debt was estimated at $33 billion on the finish of 2022, or 83% of GDP, and in keeping with the BCL, the federal government was 90.5% indebted to the Central Financial institution. Libya additionally has a sovereign wealth fund (the Libyan Funding Authority) with belongings estimated at $70 billion, which stay inaccessible because of the sanctions in power since 2011.
Mauritania
The inhabitants of Mauritania is estimated at 4.245 million in 2023 and the GDP was $8.36 billion in 2020, $9.22 billion and $9.78 billion in 2022. In keeping with the IMF, actual GDP development slowed from 6.4% in 2022 to three.4% in 2023, because of a major contraction in public funding and a slowdown in exports because of a decline in manufacturing.
The Mauritanian financial system is anticipated to develop by a median of 6% between 2024 and 2027, due to discoveries in new fuel fields and different tasks for the manufacturing of hydrogen and uranium manufacturing. The debt-to-GDP ratio elevated barely to 48.1% of GDP in 2023 because of the depreciation of the trade charge on the finish of the yr. Overseas trade reserves of $1.8 billion fell from 4.5 months of products imports in 2022 to 6 months in 2023.
The general GDP in 2023 of all of the Maghreb international locations doesn’t exceed 520 billion {dollars} for a inhabitants of round 110 million inhabitants, a GDP virtually equal to that of Belgium: 554 billion {dollars} for a inhabitants of barely 12 million inhabitants.
The world GDP is 101.3 trillion {dollars}. Collectively, the 5 international locations of the Better Maghreb characterize solely a tiny 0.053% of world GDP in 2023. This exhibits the significance of constructing the Better Maghreb as a matter of maximum urgency with a view to exploit its immense potential and make sure the financial and social growth of the area.
Allow us to hope for regional stability and growth that purpose will prevail over passions. The Maghreb political leaders have at all times insisted on the institution of a Better Maghreb. Within the twenty first century, confronted with new geostrategic and financial modifications, the Better Maghreb of the peoples can grow to be a power for stability and prosperity within the Mediterranean and African areas. Its future is to function a bridge to Africa, the continent of all challenges.
