If the state of affairs persists, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a significant maritime hall—might disrupt African agriculture. In accordance with agricultural improvement specialist Chabi Yayi, this reliance raises issues that reach past the present disaster.
Over the previous few a long time, world agricultural markets have turn out to be more and more interdependent, making meals methods significantly weak to geopolitical shocks. Amongst strategic areas, the Persian Gulf performs a central position within the manufacturing and export of important vitality assets, notably pure gasoline, the primary enter within the manufacture of nitrogen fertilisers. Nations akin to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran thus play a decisive position within the world provide of fertilisers.
Nevertheless, since 28 February 2026, this area has turn out to be the scene of a battle pitting the US and Israel towards Iran. The Iranian regime retaliated by bombing neighbouring states allied with the US (Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and many others.) and by blocking site visitors within the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint by which a big proportion of the worldwide commerce in hydrocarbons and gasoline passes. This response has brought on vitality costs to soar and a big slowdown in maritime site visitors. It’s price noting that 20 million barrels of oil handed by this strait every single day earlier than the battle started, while 20% of worldwide gasoline commerce and 30% of the world’s fertiliser exports used this route.
These disruptions have a direct affect on the fertiliser market, whose manufacturing is closely depending on pure gasoline and worldwide provide chains. On this context, Africa seems significantly weak. Certainly, many African international locations rely closely on imports of nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate, NPK fertilisers, and many others.) to extend crop yields, enhance agricultural manufacturing and thus make sure the continent’s meals self-sufficiency.
Nitrogen fertilisers are fertilisers that present crops with nitrogen, a nutrient important for his or her development. Pure gasoline is the primary uncooked materials used to provide ammonia, a key part of nitrogen fertilisers.
Yields affected
In March 2026, the Dutch TTF futures contract, the European benchmark for gasoline, surged by greater than 23% to succeed in €59.445 per megawatt-hour. This rise in gasoline costs is driving up fertiliser manufacturing prices, as their manufacture depends closely on this vitality supply.
Throughout its newest tender on 15 April, Indian Potash Ltd, one among India’s largest urea importers, obtained bids of round $1,000 per tonne – nearly double the $508 recorded two months earlier – towards a backdrop of disruptions linked to the battle within the Center East, while India, one of many world’s largest urea importers, stays closely depending on worldwide markets.
An FAO report, World agrifood implications of the 2026 battle within the Center East, revealed in March, signifies a possible 20% rise in fertiliser costs by the top of the primary half of the 12 months if the battle persists. This might set off a collection of penalties, notably an increase in agri-food costs exacerbated by inflation in sea freight prices and insurance coverage premiums. This rise in fertiliser costs would additionally lead to decreased use of inputs by producers in sub-Saharan Africa, the place fertiliser use is already very low (10 to 18 kg/ha on common, in comparison with over 90 kg/ha globally). This case will additional restrict agricultural yields and result in a decline in manufacturing in addition to farmers’ incomes.
Equally, there are fears that the finances deficits of sub-Saharan African international locations will widen, as these nations import fertilisers each season for crops akin to cotton, cashews and maize, which is a significant problem. Confronted with rising costs, governments will typically be pressured to subsidise fertilisers to make them reasonably priced for producers.
Bucking this wave of pessimism, Morocco is sending out a optimistic sign. On 16 April, OCP Group raised $1.5 billion by way of a world hybrid bond problem, a primary in {dollars} for the group and for an African firm.
The transaction was a powerful success regardless of the troublesome context: the order e book reached practically $7 billion, representing a 4.6-fold oversubscription.
Getting ready for the long run
Nations akin to Egypt and Algeria might additionally fare effectively: Egypt produces greater than 6 to 7 million tonnes of urea per 12 months and exports a big proportion of it, while Algeria, buoyed by its substantial gasoline reserves, has a manufacturing capability exceeding 3 million tonnes, enabling it to learn from rising costs on worldwide markets. That mentioned, international locations akin to Benin can be little affected by this disaster as they ordered their fertiliser shares as early as the top of 2025.
So, how can we escape this inevitability and these recurring episodes that reveal the fragility of our agricultural manufacturing methods on the African continent?
Within the brief time period, solely diplomatic efforts will allow us to discover a manner out of this battle, as growing new commerce routes inside such a brief timeframe seems to be unrealistic.
Within the medium time period, our leaders should work to scale back the publicity of our agriculture to those exogenous shocks, which recur in a fragmented and multipolar world. On 11 March, the Worldwide Power Company introduced a coordinated launch of roughly 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves, the most important operation of its form in its historical past.
Sadly, there isn’t any mechanism on the African or regional stage within the area of fertilisers. On the regional stage, it’s changing into important that organisations akin to ECOWAS, by the Regional Company for Agriculture and Meals (ARAA), can construct up strategic fertiliser reserves for member international locations in case of want.
Higher resilience to shocks
Extra typically, the growing frequency of those shocks must also immediate us to query our productivity-focused mannequin, which not meets the requirements of sustainable agriculture. The pressing precedence is to develop native biofertiliser industries and put money into analysis to develop plant varieties that require much less fertiliser.
On 19 Could, the European Fee will current a ‘fertiliser motion plan’ to scale back dependence on Russian imports, encourage native manufacturing, promote natural fertilisers and assist farmers within the face of excessive costs. We might, at a continental stage, draw inspiration from these measures to implement a coordinated programme aimed toward decreasing our publicity to exterior shocks.
Within the coming weeks, as inputs are distributed, the state of affairs for producers ought to turn out to be clearer. Though some international locations (akin to Benin) have already ordered a big proportion of the fertilisers for use initially of the 2026 agricultural season, others are already uncovered to rising costs, akin to Kenya, Uganda and South Africa (in keeping with the Worldwide Buying and selling Heart). The state of affairs might be significantly troublesome for individuals who must supply provides for rapid supply, particularly at spot market costs, the place transactions are for rapid supply.
Chabi Yayi is a Beninese agricultural entrepreneur and an skilled in agri-food undertaking improvement. In Benin, he chairs a cooperative of agricultural producers and is a member of a number of umbrella organisations within the soya and cassava sectors.
