World Unique
In Dialog
Ebrahim Rasool, former South African ambassador to the US
Now that the mud has settled following the astonishing resolution in March by the Donald Trump administration to successfully expel the South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool over a speech he made, we’re privileged to interview the previous ambassador. He discusses with Mushtak Parker the state of relations between South Africa and the USA, the implications for Sub-Saharan Africa and the shifting form of the worldwide energy order.
For a person who sports activities ‘the badge of honour’ of being the primary and hitherto solely senior diplomat to be expelled by the US President Donald Trump’s administration, Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool cuts a dapper and defiant determine whereas defending his proper to analyse his former host nation and getting ready his personal nation for radically new phrases of engagement.
On his return to South Africa accompanied together with his partner, Rosieda, he got here straight to the purpose: “After months of relentless assaults that South Africa has needed to endure, it’s good to really feel the dignity of being African.”
When you’ve got a picture a diplomat cowering on the mercy of the brand new Trump doctrine and bending the knee (as so many have been doing), you may have one other factor coming. Ebrahim Rasool, whose identify in Arabic interprets into Abraham the Prophet, shouldn’t be for ‘kicking ar*e’ as Trump has been boasting that the world’s diplomats and leaders have been doing.
As an alternative, the 62-year-old Ambassador who loves rugby and strolling as a result of he says he can focus higher whereas doing so, has doubled down on his earlier dispatches and the analytical discourse, which led to him being declared persona non grata by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
However Rasool is a dyed-in-the- wool statesman for whom welfare of this nation comes first. Regardless of the private {and professional} harm he should have suffered when he was requested to go away, he has not allowed emotion to cloud his judgement or lose sight of worldwide pragmatism.
Discussing the present relationship between Pretoria and Washington DC throughout our dialogue, he says: “I believe there may be restore work happening, which has so much to do with the truth that the US technique of overwhelming the world has not labored out as deliberate.
“For each government order they’ve issued they’ve needed to get rid of a lot of them. For each tariff they pronounced, they needed to claw again. The stand-off with China is hurting the US terribly and so is the blowback of the inventory market collapse when $10 trillion have been wiped off world shares within the two days after the tariff announcement.
“US farmers who supported Trump by and enormous have complained that they’re on the unsuitable finish of the tariff struggle, and the heads of US retailers reminiscent of Walmart have pressured, they have been struggling much more.”
This overwhelmingly hostile reception by the enterprise world to the tariff coverage, says Rasool has led to a shocking diploma of flexibility by the Trump regime over the previous couple of months. President Trump has needed to rethink quite a bit.
“I’m completely delighted that higher realism resulted in a cellphone name which we had been getting ready for between Presidents Trump and Cyril Ramaphosa ostensibly to align on the Ukrainian method.
“Provided that Ramaphosa had met President Volodymyr Zelensky on April 24 (when the Ukrainian chief visited South Africa), the opportunity of opening some commerce negotiations between South Africa and the US has elevated. That is extra to do with realism setting within the US than a softening of perspective.”
Nonetheless, South Africa, he affirms shouldn’t be softening is stance on its case towards the actions of the US ally, the Netanyahu Authorities in Israel over the atrocities heaped on civilians in Gaza within the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice (ICJ).
The US additionally appears to have dialled down its former barrage of untruths concerning the scenario of the White Afrikaners in South Africa. They’ve been supplied entry into the US over claims that they’re racially discriminated towards in South Africa though there may be not a shred of proof of this taking place.
On the difficulty of commerce with South Africa, the US’s extra real looking and pragmatic method relies on acknowledging that it wants numerous minerals, such because the platinum metals teams, for its industries, particularly within the auto manufacturing sector. “The realities of the previous few weeks have made the connection way more palatable,” pressured Rasool.
However how real is this variation of perspective, provided that the US is at present negotiating a separate deal on essential minerals with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and at finish April signed a mineral growth and financial reconstruction cope with Ukraine to achieve entry to that nation’s uncommon minerals?
“I don’t assume the agenda has basically modified,” says Rasool, however the ways have been adjusted. “The agenda is definitely nonetheless that he (Trump) has the brand new Robber Barons if I can use that phrase, the Tech Execs Robber Barons (referring to the tech giants who’ve lined as much as help Trump).
Each financial epoch has its set of Robber Barons. The Industrial Revolution wanted oil which gave rise to the Carnegies and the JP Morgans. Right now it’s the Tech Execs – they know that their robust drive is (stymied) as a result of the US has fallen behind within the scramble for essential minerals,” Rasool argues.
He additionally dismisses the broadly held opinion in lots of quarters that Donald Trump is displaying signs of madness, that his insurance policies are a type of insanity.
“You need to at all times search for the ‘technique within the insanity’ he observes. “You may be entertained by the insanity. However the technique is the scramble for essential minerals and uncommon earth components. Africa has 30% of world reserves.
“South Africa had nice pores and skin within the recreation after we misplaced 18 troopers in defence of the DRC’s essential minerals. The DRC has now allowed the US to be immediately concerned slightly than have essential minerals filtered out from the japanese DRC largely through Rwanda.
“The ‘insanity’ about Greenland additionally has a technique.” Rasool observes. “With the ice cap melting and the opportunity of essential minerals changing into out there within the Arctic, makes Greenland essential.”
The implications for South Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are clear. How do the leaders of the 4th Industrial Revolution get their palms on SSA’s essential minerals? A technique, he says, is thru securing the ocean routes that carry these essential minerals – that’s why the US has to subdue the Houthis and to take over the Panama Canal. It additionally explains ‘the madness’ of wanting shipbuilding to be massive within the US once more.
“This,” says Rasool, “is as a result of the lifeblood of this section of the 4th Industrial Revolution flows via undersea cables that have to be patrolled. For me the underlying, organising precept is competitors with China round essential minerals.”
Does Africa have a unity of goal over this quickly evolving state of affairs? The African Union (AU) has hitherto had no coherent response to the Trump tariff tantrums – and that’s the reason South Africa has been notably focused to stop it changing into central in organising the AU.
“With South Africa on the again foot, you possibly can go in and make a aspect cope with the DRC. You possibly can go and make Rwanda your proxy and attempt to get direct entry to the minerals your self,” factors out Rasool.
“The intention is to interrupt lengthy standing multilateral agreements such because the African Development and Alternative Act (Agoa) Programme which at present consists of 32 SSA nations and is due for renewal in September 2025, by forcing everybody to barter individually round each product.”
Ambassador Rasool additionally thinks that there are ideological drivers, based mostly on a racially supremacist intuition behind the Trump doctrine. This was certainly the central level he had made throughout his speak that riled the US administration to such an extent that they requested for his elimination.
“You do have a really lively export of that intuition. It allowed the wanton interference within the inner politics of different nations. For those who have a look at (Trump’s) courting of Nigel Farage and the Reform celebration within the UK; absolutely the pilloring of Prime Minister Keir Starmer by Elon Musk ‘for being smooth on Pakistanis and Muslims’, I believe that is an interference within the inner insurance policies of the UK.
“When you may have Vice-President JD Vance going to the Munich Safety Discussion board and advancing the reason for the far proper German AFD per week forward of an election, you start to get a way that there’s this intuition at play.”
To push this ideological stance requires White ‘victims’ argues Rasool. The reality concerning the South African Afrikaners and their monetary standing, the federal government’s land reform programme and so forth aren’t the difficulty.
“That you must present White victimhood. That’s the place the White Afrikaners are available in. By and enormous I do assume there may be an ideological agenda. That is fed by the altering demographics within the US, a declining White vote, and the opportunity of ‘a majority of minorities’ – in addition to the thought of casting a worldwide course of to dominate essential minerals in civilisational phrases.”
The riposte from the onerous proper is that “your type of liberal democracy has been very tolerant on immigration, giving rise to this phenomenon of wokism”. It’s a second, Rasool says, when civilisation is frozen in an period of White domination and a strand of Christian evangelical spiritual conservatism – which is nothing like mainstream Christian humanism.
This assault on wokism (recognized as being conscious of and actively attentive to necessary societal information and points, particularly by way of racial and social justice), range, on integration and immigration are all partly because of the ‘demographics of survival’ to stop ‘a majority of minorities.’
It is usually a part of a worldwide campaign in a determined try to stop multilateralism. South Africa, Rasool says, finds itself aligned to a number of multilateral initiatives – The Non-Aligned Motion (NAM), BRICS, the AU, and this 12 months turned the primary African nation to carry the Presidency of the G20 and can host the 2025 G20 Summit in November this 12 months.
Trump, Rasool maintains, understands that the world is changing into more and more multipolar however can not tolerate a world that’s more and more multilateral, contending with competing centres of energy. If this development takes root, Trump fears what it would do to the US bond market and the worth of the greenback.
“Think about de-dollarisation changing into a actuality. Think about there are methods during which the AU tells the US: ‘In order for you any of our essential minerals, purchase them from China which can course of them first.”
Rasool is pragmatic about the way forward for AGOA, however he has an attention-grabbing tackle the US adopting ‘a divide and rule’ technique. “My sense is that AGOA is being dismantled. Automotives have been exported from South Africa to the US underneath AGOA. They’ve taken automobiles out (of AGOA) and slapped tariffs on them.
“The identical factor with aluminium and metal. They’re going to dismantle AGOA product by product till it turns into meaningless after which they’re going to negotiate exemptions product by product.”
Manganese is already exempted from tariffs as a result of that’s what the US desires. AGOA is being disassembled virtually by stealth after which negotiations for exemptions based mostly on what the US wants is offered a manner again.
“You see the complete horror of the dismantling of AGOA” he says, “after which the exceptions for the platinum group of minerals, on manganese, and different essential minerals reminiscent of cobalt, rhodium and many others. that’s the type of state of affairs that typically presents itself as a commerce struggle and typically as a civilisational ideological struggle.”
As as to whether AGOA is probably not renewed, Ambassador Rasool says, “For those who don’t have a way of the path of AGOA, how do farmers know whether or not to plant extra orange bushes? How do producers know what extra to order of their provide chains, how do shops within the US know they need to place orders with South African and African farmers. The uncertainty along with the exemptions are having an impact on AGOA itself.
“I might not be stunned if other than the essential minerals, they are saying we love orange juice an excessive amount of. Allow us to have a look at which agricultural merchandise you possibly can provide. In the event that they uncover that South Africa exports nuclear isotopes to the US that battle most cancers there, they could embody this. There shall be a product-by-product evaluation. By the point we come to September, the US will know what’s on their buying record and what’s not.”
Does this all level to a serious shift within the world order? The world is watching to see who will stand off towards the US. China, Rasool says. is aware of what playing cards it has and the right way to play them. “There’s a uncommon earth component referred to as gallium which is essential within the manufacturing of semi-conductors and microchips. If China withholds 30% of that from the US, then the latter’s GDP drops by about $600bn.
“China shouldn’t be massive on speeches and rhetoric. It’s not going to be silly by beginning to unload its US bond holdings, however it has began to withhold a few of these essential minerals – you possibly can see Trump is panicking and Xi Jinping is as cool as a cucumber.
“China is exhibiting the world a method to cope with the US that isn’t panic-stricken and shedding one’s cool. On the similar time China is starting to construct alliances, ostensibly round commerce. If the US will get pernicious, these alliances might result in a essential mass of again stiffening.”
What a few return to a multilateral rules-based framework via which everyone progresses? “Within the post-modern mind-set, every thing is relative,” muses Rasool. “These wanting the same old guidelines of diplomacy, of commerce, of worldwide geopolitics are just like the outdated orthodoxies of the previous. If you’re not going to get into this post-modern system you’ll be left behind.
“What China and Russia are exhibiting with impunity and absence of guidelines, ‘I’m now going to retrospectively apply my retaining Crimea, my retaining 30% of Ukraine.’ China is harbouring ambitions over Taiwan and saying: ‘Okay that is the stunning a part of no guidelines and impunity let me see what I can do round Taiwan.’
“There’s a concern not a lot of enjoyable the foundations by the US, however of enjoyable the foundations of engagement which may have a consequential response, that’s feared greater than anything. Within the short-term attempting to play by the foundations is like attempting to play with a superpower with each your palms tied behind your again.”
As such, is the rules-based system rigged towards Africa and different growing nations? If a brand new system comes into place, is Africa robust sufficient to renegotiate by itself phrases?
“Once I went to the US,” says Rasool, “I went with sufficient optimism that Donald Trump’s institutional iconoclasm, his willingness to destroy outmoded idols would perhaps result in 4 years of management of the G20 which might outcome within the reform of the UN and the Bretton Woods programs. Possibly this wholesome disrespect for NATO might be a shake-up, additionally that the World Commerce Organisation (WTO) might shift issues in favour of Africa.
“I believe in his path of journey he has moved the US from hegemony to domination, from smooth persuasive energy to onerous energy. The one factor that may salvage something is blowback, whether or not from the inventory markets, farmers within the US, China, or if the multilateral system accelerates.
Chances are you’ll find yourself with no less than a bilateral world with two poles. Then with issues like de-dollarization, you’ve received to guard your self towards that pernicious energy. If you’re financially built-in, they’ll punish you by sanctioning you. After they threaten, for instance ANC leaders with sanctions. then we’re sitting geese as a result of our system is totally dollarized, our monetary structure is absolutely built-in with the US one, then you definitely start to see the hazard indicators. To then negotiate diversified markets and partnerships, you need to do it on the again foot.”
The one forex that remotely comes close to to difficult the dominance of the US greenback is the Chinese language Yuan, which could be very weak in its attain and lacks the backing of a really world forex and funds structure. However is de-dollarization inevitable within the medium-to-long-term future?
“The very level you make concerning the weak point of the yuan versus the US greenback is exactly the rationale that the final BRICS summit held in South Africa didn’t entertain the notion of de-dollarization. That didn’t cease Donald Trump saying that these pondering of de-dollarization, ought to put together for 100% tariffs. It is probably not a clever resolution, however maybe it’s time to make a begin in that path. I agree we’re not prepared for de-dollarization, however we can not maintain our eggs within the one US basket ceaselessly.”
Mehmet Simsek, Turkiye’s revered Finance and Treasury Minister who can be spearheading the nation’s rapprochement and financial growth into SSA, talking on the Antalya Diplomatic Discussion board, warns that there is no such thing as a fast repair to Trump’s flawed tariff and commerce playbook.
An antidote to Trump’s tariff and commerce antics, he prompt is regional collaboration then wider multilateral partnerships to keep away from fragmentation.
Equally, UNCTAD’s newest figures on intra-Africa commerce are fairly revealing. Intra-African commerce stays one of many continent’s biggest alternatives, however it accounts for simply 16% of whole exports, with most commerce nonetheless directed outdoors the continent.
Over 50% of the continent’s imports and exports are tied to only 5 economies, all outdoors of Africa. However herein lies a glimmer of hope for Africa via unlocking the potential of regional commerce and expediting the complete implementation of AfCFTA, which might create a $3.4 trillion market. However how does Africa overcome this main challenge, I put to Ambassador Rasool.
Unlocking this potential, he agreed, requires investing in infrastructure by increasing transport, vitality and ICT networks, streamlining commerce insurance policies and processes reminiscent of customs, and supporting industrialisation via incentive tax breaks and inexpensive loans that may enhance manufacturing and regional manufacturing.
“One of many offers I used to be attempting to make with US buyers was to say: ‘You can get first mover offtake agreements on essential minerals from Africa for those who put money into our capability to beneficiate and course of.’ On this manner South Africa and different particular person African nations can have offtake agreements within the above context.
“We improve intra-African commerce as a precondition for intercontinental commerce – 16% is healthier than the ten% it was lower than a decade in the past. Think about if Africa-China commerce is paid for in native currencies. I believe you bought to sign one thing experimental. We additionally should construct up African reserve currencies and BRICS reserve currencies in our respective nations.”
For the reason that Nineties, over 1 billion folks have been lifted out of absolute poverty predominantly in Asia largely via commerce, and development related to that commerce. What wouldn’t it take for Africa to emulate this world-beating and memorable Asian/Chinese language achievement, I requested?
“That is completely an important query. Africa’s decolonisation was largely within the second half of the twentieth century, so it has an extended begin up time. It was polarised via competing colonial legacies – Anglophone, Francophone and Lusophone pursuits.
“So far as intra-Africa commerce and industrial relations are involved, I do know from my time on the Growth Financial institution of South Africa (DBSA), nations had two to a few rail gauges that didn’t converse to one another. The route was from mine to port. It’s now altering via new connectivities such because the Lobito Hall as an example. SSA’s continued reliance on extraction is capital heavy and never labour intensive. Africa largely was caught up on this extraction paradigm.”
He agrees that the AfCFTA implementation is just too sluggish. “Completely, we didn’t see this oncoming practice referred to as Donald Trump. We didn’t see the significance of solidarity funding. There was nonetheless a colonial mind-set based mostly on an understanding of a aware underdevelopment of Africa.
What we should have now could be a aware solidarity of funding in Africa.” AGOA and the US authorities’s HIV programme, referred to as the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Reduction (Pepfar), launched in 2003 by then US President George W Bush, and distributed via Washington’s important abroad assist company USAID, he maintains have been essential. What Donald Trump mentioned otherwise is: ‘That isn’t my drawback. I don’t have to do that. You’re a part of exploiting us. The exploiter has now develop into the exploited.’ There was a paradigm shift.
Trump, he stresses, can be not paying the safety dividend to a continent like Africa, which goes to have the youth bulge as seen within the newest demographic dynamics. “You need to select, as earlier administrations have, in retaining sufficient sources going into Africa or inviting the subsequent wave of migration from Africa – instability straight to Western capitals. The hazard of the supremacist ideology is that it upends the type of unstated guidelines of mutuality on the planet,” he warns.
