Whereas the Jan. 31 runoffs for the 18th Congressional District seat selected Christian Menefee as its consultant, Houston’s traditionally Black neighborhoods are nonetheless coping with the implications of Texas’ mid-decade congressional redistricting.
Voters say the back-to-back elections tied to the TX-18 seat, from the January runoffs to the upcoming March primaries, created confusion for them. It additionally contributed to a stretch by which the district successfully lacked constant illustration in Congress for nearly a 12 months.
For Felisa Wilson, a retired army veteran, the election timing has had a big impact.
“The district that you simply have been in for many years, grew up in, that represents you and your folks, your folks, your loved ones, your church, unexpectedly…you’re out of your district, otherwise you don’t know,” mentioned Wilson. “It throws everybody into confusion. It angers folks as a result of it was pointless.”
Her expertise mirrors what a January 2026 report from Texas Southern College’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland Faculty of Public Affairs states.
The researchers’ evaluation of the 2025 mid-decade redistricting cycle mentioned three Houston-area congressional districts, TX-9, TX-18, and TX-29, have been “dramatically altered” throughout the 2025 redistricting course of.
What do the brand new maps say?
Underneath the brand new map, solely 26% of residents within the new TX-18 beforehand lived within the outdated district, whereas 64% are being shifted in from TX-9, a wholesale inhabitants change that researchers say has main implications for voter consciousness and turnout.
The disruption is compounded by timing.
Voters in TX-18 are being requested to take part in a particular election runoff below the outdated district boundaries, adopted simply weeks later by March primaries carried out below new boundaries that “bear little resemblance” to the earlier map, in accordance with political scientist Mark Jones, a professor of Rice College and a co-author of the TSU examine.
Jones advised the Defender that solely about one out of 4 present residents of the outdated TX-18 will stay within the new district for the first elections, a stage of turnover that shall be disorienting even for frequent voters.
“It’s going to be very complicated for voters as a result of what it ends in is that just about all the present TX-9 voters are going to search out themselves now in different districts,” Jones mentioned.
‘Dying communities’ and unmet wants
Within the Fifth Ward, the implications of shedding a constant congressional advocate have been tangible. Tara Caro, a resident of TX-18, mentioned voters have gone almost a 12 months with out somebody in a position to answer on a regular basis quality-of-life points.
“One of many points has been the dumping and the trash pickup round Fifth Ward,” Caro defined. “In a neighborhood like this, it’s the little issues. Communities which are dying…historic Black communities. Sheila Jackson Lee would, in case you known as her, come out and have a look at what you’re speaking about with the unlawful dumping, or she would have somebody come, even when she was in Washington, D.C. Sylvester Turner acted the identical approach, though sadly, he wasn’t in for too lengthy.”
For residents, the absence of illustration intersected with deeper anxieties about displacement and gentrification.
Many seniors in these neighborhoods dwell on mounted incomes, making them weak as property values and taxes rise.
“For those who’re solely getting $1,600 a month, however then you need to pay $23,000 in mortgage or hire…With out somebody in Congress saying, ‘My district is 75% aged on mounted revenue,’ we can have these developments coming in, making an attempt to purchase out our seniors’ properties,” Wilson added.
A map formed by shifting authorized floor
The TSU report located these experiences inside a broader authorized and political shift.
Republican lawmakers pursued the 2025 redistricting after federal courtroom choices weakened protections for “coalition districts,” areas the place Black and Latino voters collectively shaped a majority below earlier interpretations of the Voting Rights Act
Jones defined that in earlier redistricting cycles, legislators believed they have been constrained from breaking apart these coalitions. That modified after current courtroom rulings, opening the door to extra aggressive partisan remapping
Whereas the state has argued that race was not explicitly utilized in drawing the brand new maps, the result disagrees.
TX-18 now has a majority Black voting-age inhabitants, whereas TX-9 and TX-29 have been reshaped into districts with Hispanic pluralities or slim majorities.
Turnout dangers in a primary-driven system
The report additionally underscores a important actuality for Houston voters. In 9 out of 10 native congressional districts, the first election successfully determines the winner.
But, Democratic major turnout in Texas has persistently lagged behind Republican participation, a niche that researchers say weakens illustration in districts reshaped by redistricting.
Group leaders say the confusion attributable to shifting district traces threatens to additional suppress turnout, particularly amongst seniors and residents who already really feel disconnected from the political course of.
“However these votes depend,” Caro mentioned. “We actually want the folks to get on the market and train their rights as a result of that’s put a real hindrance.”
What does the report say?
Texas’ 2025 redistricting was pushed by a political objective to extend Republican U.S. Home seats by 5, shifting the delegation from 25 Republican and 13 Democratic seats to a focused 30 Republican and eight Democratic seats.
The map was handed throughout a particular legislative session after a Democratic quorum break, signed into legislation in August 2025, and later allowed to take impact by the U.S. Supreme Court docket.
Houston districts have been among the many most radically altered in Texas
Three Houston-area districts, TX-9, TX-18, and TX-29, have been essentially reconfigured:
Solely 3% of residents within the new TX-9 lived within the outdated TX-9
Solely 26% of residents within the new TX-18 lived within the outdated TX-18
Solely 37% of residents within the new TX-29 lived within the outdated TX-29
Most elections shall be determined within the primaries, not in November
23 of 38 districts have a Republican benefit of 20+ factors, making GOP basic election wins almost assured.
Eight districts have a Democratic benefit of 20+ factors, making Democratic wins almost assured.
Solely seven districts statewide are remotely aggressive in November 2026.
In Houston particularly, 9 of 10 districts are functionally determined in get together primaries, not basic elections.
TX-9 is the one Houston district with actual general-election competitors
TX-9 has an 11-point Republican baseline benefit, making it Republican-leaning however not a lock.
All different Houston districts are structurally secure for one get together.
TX-9 turns into the one true battleground district in Houston for the November 2026 election.
Black political energy is concentrated however protected in TX-18
TX-18 is one in every of solely two districts in Texas the place Black voters are a majority of the CVAP (50.5%).
Black voters additionally make up 64% of Democratic major voters in TX-18, making it structurally doable for Black voters to elect candidates of their alternative.
TX-18 stays a core Black political energy district regardless of redistricting.
Turnout is extraordinarily low in decisive elections
Fewer than one in 5 registered voters statewide participated within the March 2022 and March 2024 get together major elections.
In Houston, turnout ranges from:
Republican major: 3%-15%
Democratic major: 4%-13%
