Not very a few years come alongside the place we’d be speaking a few presumptive winner for the album of the yr Grammy 10 months from the date that award is given out. Neither do occasions come alongside fairly often the place we might essentially be contemplating somebody a possible shoo-in for a serious award when that particular person has famously been nominated for it 4 occasions and misplaced each time.
However by no means earlier than has there been a yr that has introduced us a “Cowboy Carter,” and so all bets are off, in the case of inserting our bets very, very early. If wagering this far out is rarely fully secure, it nonetheless appears unimaginable — barring completely unexpected circumstances — that essentially the most talked-about album of Beyoncé‘s profession might be something however the front-runner because the months depend right down to early 2025.
Prognosticating the Grammys this early is certain to result in some pearl-clutching. However Oscar-watchers really feel no such hesitance in the case of the calendar, and none would have thought that Academy Awards hypothesis was past the pale when “Barbenheimer” fever struck final summer time. Properly, guess what? “Oppenheimer” got here out when there have been nonetheless 5 and a half months left within the Oscars’ calendar yr, however apparent is clear. And because the Grammys’ eligibility interval ends sooner than most individuals notice it does, in September 2024, we’re truly solely six months away from the cutoff — about as far-off as Christopher Nolan’s film was from its goalposts when individuals felt assured about calling it a frontrunner.
The Grammys are normally far much less predictable than the Oscars, so it will really feel silly to consider making a name this early except we had the musical equal of an “Oppenheimer” on our palms.
It appears like we do.
In the event you doubt this, perhaps that you must widen your social media circle a bit, if not your studying habits. “Cowboy Carter” has turn into immediately beloved throughout the board in music tastemaker circles, in a manner not often seen with any album lately or a long time. There are exceptions, with some very good individuals who have cheap doubts concerning the album’s greatness, however even most of those “wait a second” takes usually acknowledge and admire the recordings’s scope and ambition. Most critics, pop followers, individuals within the trade and even (pointedly) individuals in insider circles who’re a fan of nation music — Beyoncé’s very loosely focused style this time round — are falling over each other with reward. Selection‘s evaluation already referred to as it essentially the most talked-about album of the twenty first century, earlier than it got here out. If that speak had turned out bitter as soon as individuals bought a pay attention, we’d be having a distinct dialogue, however “Cowboy Carter” has been not simply the speak of the city however a uncommon level of near-unanimity this present day. (With room to permit for swish dissent from Bey-naysayers, we are able to all hope.)
Earlier than speaking any extra concerning the album pulling by within the clinch on the power of its personal greatness, let’s additionally think about: What might be moderately standing in its manner?
Not a lot. The obvious challenger could be seen because the one different album within the the rest of this yr that may even stand unmistakably as a serious cultural occasion: Taylor Swift’s “The Tortured Poets Division,” due simply three weeks after “Cowboy Carter” got here out. And on a purely blockbuster degree, Swift will definitely out-stream and out-sell Beyoncé, based mostly on her current monitor file of million-unit opening weeks in an period the place that’s actually unachievable for another artist. Swift is on a roll with the Grammys, with critics and clearly with most people. However that might be the factor that permits Beyoncé to lastly advance within the album of the yr class, after a number of misses. After “Midnights” simply gained that trophy this yr, giving Swift a file variety of private triumphs within the class, “Tortured Poets Division” may develop into as sturdy as that album, “1989” and “Fearless” mixed and nonetheless even most hardcore Swifties could be saying: “It’s OK if Beyoncé will get it this time. Actually.”
Who else is a candidate? In the case of album initiatives which can be seen as combining business power, important attraction and water-cooler-chatter essentiality, there aren’t any such trifold opponents which can be already out, and none that we find out about on the best way. In fact, we reside within the age of shock drops, nevertheless it’s onerous to consider very many artists who could be even holding again a shock behemoth, simply out of view.
Of the album releases which have already come out this yr, the artists that stand glorious pictures at an album of the yr nomination embrace Ariana Grande and Kacey Musgraves… and never many others. Forthcoming albums from previous nominees Dua Lipa and Haim are additionally more likely to enter the dialog. However once we discuss a few of the bigger-selling releases of 2024 thus far, just like the Future/Metro Boomin collaboration, which is promoting properly however fared modestly with critics, the query is extra whether or not they’ll get a nomination in November, not whether or not they have a shot at taking the lead. The zeitgeist at massive is a tough factor to rattle, and never many musical initiatives are doing it proper now.
As for potential releases, nobody is aware of for certain but whether or not Billie Eilish’s third album will fall earlier than or after the Sept 30 cutoff date. SZA has promised us an all-new album referred to as “Lana”… but additionally simply mentioned that she plans to place out a deluxe model of her final album previous to that, so it’s seeming much less and certain she would get round to placing out two main album initiatives earlier than the top of September. Talking of Lanas, Lana Del Rey has her personal transfer into nation on the best way, tentatively set for launch simply earlier than the eligibility cutoff date. It might be enjoyable to see two putatively nation albums by pop superstars compete in opposition to each other for the highest Grammy, and that would occur… but when it does, it’s not a stretch to foretell that Beyoncé will enter the voting with extra wind in her sails, regardless of how good the Del Rey album is. Another person may shock us, however in need of an Adele or a Kendrick Lamar dropping a shock album that occurs to be the album of their profession, it’s onerous to think about who may usurp what we’re seeing within the present second.
So, sure, it’s sort of simple to get to forecasting a Beyoncé win partly by a strategy of elimination. And likewise by the “if not now for her, when?” query (although, clearly, that one alone has not pushed her over earlier than).
But it surely nonetheless feels higher to foretell a “Cowboy Carter” gold ribbon on the idea of its personal stature, as one thing all people has to have a say about within the yr of our Lord 2024 — with the chatter among the many many individuals who’ve truly listened to it coming in at about 95% delighted.
How will she fare in different classes? It’s secure to say that Beyoncé will go from being the artist who has gained essentially the most Grammys in historical past to being… properly, the artist who has gained a bunch greater than that. “Cowboy Carter” is being categorized as a rustic album for DSP functions by her individuals, so although she has mentioned “it’s not a rustic album, it’s a Beyoncé album,” her workforce will in all probability enter it in key nation classes, since “Beyoncé” stays to be acknowledged as its personal class by the Grammys.
Will it’s accepted there, when Grammy committees have beforehand, contentiously shifted Kacey Musgraves’ “Star Crossed” from nation to pop, in opposition to her needs? Nearly assuredly; are you able to think about the hell to pay if the Recording Academy tells the world that “Cowboy Carter” isn’t actually nation — even when it’s a stylistic omnibus? The album will compete for nation album, and win; “Texas Maintain ‘Em” will compete for nation tune, and doubtless win. However that also leaves room for songs off the album that skew in numerous instructions to be entered in different classes; “Spaghetti” might be entered in hip-hop, her duet with Miley Cyrus might be entered as a pop duo-or-group tune, and an R&B subject candidate is probably going in there someplace, too. In the meantime, one of many main roots-based artists, Allison Russell, has tweeted that that is an Americana album, not a rustic album — which, in some total sense, is true, given how big an umbrella that time period encompasses — so it will be fully be inside Beyoncé’s rights to enter “16 Carriages” or one in every of a number of different attainable tracks in that subject, on prime of her traction in all places else.
However the general-field massive three is the place the gold awaits this undertaking, so the one actual suspense is which songs out of a dozen or extra nice decisions Beyoncé will enter for file of the yr and tune of the yr. These are tougher to say are shoo-ins, provided that that is actually concerning the dominance of the gathering as a complete, not any of its particular person items. However AOTY? It’s hers to lose.
And it’ll be the Recording Academy’s acquire if it lastly will get to acknowledge an album that almost everybody watching can agree felt like a cultural signpost. “Cowboy Carter” makes much more statements than it’s initially being given credit score for — not simply concerning the historical past of Black girls in nation, which might be sufficient, however concerning the broad growth and inclusion of being the musical omnivore that Beyoncé is proving herself to be. It’ll be within the custom of wins like these for “Songs within the Key of Life,” “Graceland,” “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” (the final time a Black lady gained it, however who’s counting) and others — landmark information that felt culture-shifting, in addition to simply being grooves a nation may get below.
In the case of the confluence of circumstances affecting its possibilities, maybe screenwriter Larry Karaszewski mentioned it finest, in a social media thread, when he mentioned: “I’ve by no means heard an album extra carefully designed to win Album of the 12 months. If there’s such a factor as Grammy Bait, that is it… slightly nation, R&B, pop, old-fashioned, new college… some legends giving their thumbs up, even a Beatles cowl.” Lest the reverse-engineering angle sound cynical, he added: “However, that being mentioned — it’s an important friggin’ file that truly deserves to win Album of the 12 months.”
For Beyoncé herself, these Grammys clearly gained’t be her first rodeo, however they’ll probably be her most rewarding.
