Former Tunisian International Minister Mongi Hamdi served as Particular Consultant of the United Nations Secretary-Normal in Mali. Notably concerned within the battle in Sudan, he appears to be like again on the makes an attempt, to this point unsuccessful, to result in peace.
5 years after the autumn of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan stays a prisoner of its previous. The nation is ravaged by a warfare that dare not communicate its identify: an ideological battle led by the previous Islamist networks of the fallen regime, way more than a easy conflict between two generals.
Behind Normal Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) lies a political agenda: to revive the Islamist order that dominated the nation for 3 a long time. This actuality explains why the military systematically rejects all peace initiatives, together with the latest one, supported by the USA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
This refusal just isn’t unintentional; it’s ideological
Omar al-Bashir had constructed greater than a dictatorship: a system primarily based on the fusion of political energy and Islamist ideology. His social gathering, the Nationwide Congress, managed the administration, the economic system, safety and the military. When he was overthrown in 2019, many believed that this method had come to an finish.
For Sudan, the true method out of the disaster won’t come from the barracks, however from the folks.
In actuality, the construction of the Islamist state has survived, rooted in establishments and guarded by its loyalists throughout the SAF. It’s this continuity that has allowed al-Burhan to consolidate his energy after his 2021 coup. To make sure the military’s loyalty, he relied on officers linked to the previous regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. In alternate, the latter regained affect and safety.
The present warfare is subsequently much less a battle for nationwide unity than a disguised counter-revolution.
The latest peace initiative sponsored by Washington, Riyadh, Cairo and Abu Dhabi proposed a ceasefire, humanitarian entry and a political transition. The SAF’s response was categorical: no.
For the Islamist motion that dominates the navy hierarchy, accepting such an settlement would imply ceding energy to civilians, exposing their networks and renouncing their ideological challenge. Their rejection is subsequently not a navy tactic, however a technique for political survival.
A battle for Sudan’s future
In the meantime, the nation is collapsing: greater than ten million displaced folks, cities in ruins and widespread famine. But the generals proceed to speak of ‘victory’ and ‘sovereignty’, at the same time as they additional isolate Sudan from its neighbours and the remainder of the world.
Within the shadows, figures from the previous regime are already getting ready their return. Ahmed Haroun, wished by the Worldwide Felony Court docket, has mentioned he is able to take part in future elections. Different Nationwide Congress Occasion officers are reorganising themselves across the similar rhetoric of ‘stability’ and ‘nationwide unity’.
Behind these phrases lies nothing greater than an try and resurrect a repressive system that has already led the nation to chapter and isolation.
Ahmed Haroun, then governor of South Kordofan, in April 2012 (AFP photograph).
This battle can’t be decreased to a rivalry between Burhan and Hemedti, the top of the Speedy Assist Forces (RSF). It pits two visions of Sudan in opposition to one another. On the one hand, there may be the imaginative and prescient of a navy and Islamist state looking for to return to energy. Then again, the imaginative and prescient of a civil society that also aspires to democracy and justice is the legacy of the 2019 revolution.
So long as the worldwide group continues to deal with the generals as reliable interlocutors, the warfare will proceed. Peace can’t be negotiated with those that reject the very precept of peace.
For Sudan, the true method out of the disaster won’t come from the barracks, however from the folks.
And for the area, ignoring this actuality means accepting that the ghost of Omar al-Bashir’s Islamist regime will proceed to hang-out the Horn of Africa — to the detriment of any lasting stability.
