*Neglect the steamrolls. Neglect the sweeps. The 98th Academy Awards, airing this Sunday, March 15, 2026, on ABC and streaming reside on Hulu, is shaping as much as be probably the most chaotic and unpredictable ceremony in trendy reminiscence.
Host Conan O’Brien returns for his second yr to navigate a race that has cut up pundits, cut up precursors, and cut up the web. On the coronary heart of the chaos is an epic head-to-head between two titans: Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic One Battle After One other (starring Leonardo DiCaprio) and Ryan Coogler’s horror-tinged blockbuster Sinners (starring Michael B. Jordan). Each movies enter the Dolby Theatre with a document variety of nominations, and they’re dueling in 11 classes, making a nail-biter that has left specialists at Selection, The Hollywood Reporter, and IndieWire refreshing their odds by the hour.
Listed here are the ultimate predictions for the most important classes, based mostly on the Gold Derby consensus, late-breaking momentum, and the “vibe vs. stats” debate that has outlined this awards season.
Greatest Image: The Final Toss-Up
Predicted Winner: One Battle After One other (Paul Thomas Anderson)The Risk: Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
That is the tightest Greatest Image race in many years. Statistically, One Battle After One other has the sting, having received the Administrators Guild Award (DGA), the Producers Guild Award (PGA), the Golden Globe, and the Critics’ Alternative Award. That could be a precursor package deal that often ensures a win.
Nevertheless, Sinners has the “vibes.” It received the Display Actors Guild Award for Greatest Ensemble—a large indicator of business love—and has the cultural momentum of a late-breaking phenomenon. If the preferential poll breaks in its favor, it might finish a 34-year drought for the horror style on the Oscars (the final being The Silence of the Lambs). Don’t be shocked if Ryan Coogler makes historical past right here.
Greatest Director: The Overdue Narrative
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After One other)
Regardless of the chaos beneath the road, this class feels locked. Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated 14 instances and not using a single win. His DGA victory, mixed with the sheer scale and ambition of One Battle After One other, makes this his second. Ryan Coogler can be a historic winner (the primary Black director to win the class), however the stats favor PTA closely—Gold Derby at the moment has him at ~95%.
Greatest Actor: The Late Surge
Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
This race flipped. Early within the season, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner, however a mix of marketing campaign backlash and fading buzz opened the door. Michael B. Jordan, delivering a transformative twin efficiency in Sinners, capitalized on the momentum shift completely. His SAG Award win was the ultimate piece of the puzzle, proving he has the business help to take down Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After One other) and the veteran energy of Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
Greatest Actress: The Lock of the Night time
Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
If there may be one assure on Sunday, it’s Jessie Buckley. She has swept each main precursor—the Globes, Critics’ Alternative, BAFTA, and SAG—for her emotionally devastating efficiency as Agnes, Shakespeare’s spouse. Her Gold Derby odds sit at a staggering ~97%. Write her identify in pen.
Greatest Supporting Actor: The Veteran’s Due
Predicted Winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After One other)
Sean Penn’s flip because the villainous Col Lockjaw has been a masterclass in gravitas. Having received each the BAFTA and the SAG Award, he enters as the favourite, regardless of stiff competitors from Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Worth) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners).
Greatest Supporting Actress: The Closing Puzzle Piece
Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
This class has been a three-way battle all season. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After One other) received the Globe; Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) received the BAFTA. However Amy Madigan’s victory on the SAG Awards offers her the essential late momentum wanted to clinch the Oscar.
The Screenplay Classes
The place to Watch
The 98th Academy Awards air reside this Sunday, March 15, at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on ABC and shall be streaming concurrently on Hulu. The red-carpet pre-show kicks off early within the afternoon.
Will One Battle After One other maintain the road? Will Sinners pull off the historic upset? Seize your popcorn—that is going to be a wild experience.
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