Because the conflict initiated by the US / Israel in opposition to Iran continues with Iran attacking US bases and pursuits within the Gulf, Kasirim Nwuke recaps occasions, appears to be like on the impression on African economies and warns that Africa may very well be subsequent on the empirical march.
On the twenty eighth February, the tenth day of the 2026 Ramadan season, within the early hours of the day, the US of America and its ally, the State of Israel, launched a coordinated assault on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This occurred a day after the Omani Overseas Minister gave an interview to US tv, affirming that negotiations (mediated by Oman) between the US and Iran on the latter’s nuclear programme have been going effectively and that peace was inside attain. The assault despatched shock waves internationally.
This was not a shock assault. Iran has spent the final 47 years because the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 getting ready for conflict with ‘The Nice Devil’ because it has labelled the US. On the twenty eighth of February, Iran, in contrast to through the 12-day conflict, retaliated instantly. And yet one more conflict within the Center East started.
Iran struck not solely targets in Israel but additionally US bases in most of the US-allied international locations that encompass it. On the finish of the day, the US and Israel introduced that they’d decapitated the management of the Islamic Republic, that the Supreme Chief, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed.
Iran, maybe respectful of the Islamic custom of burying the lifeless inside 48hours of dying, needed to acknowledge and announce the dying of its Supreme Chief.
Within the instant aftermath of the outbreak of hostilities, Iran introduced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz for all ships besides Russian and Chinese language ships. The Strait could be very important for the worldwide financial system. It’s estimated that between 20-30% of worldwide oil and fuel is shipped by way of the Strait. In line with the US Vitality Info Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels of oil transited by way of the Strait of Hormuz every day in 2024.
On 28 February, about an hour after the graduation of the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard started to broadcast messages by way of customary VHF channels to service provider vessels within the Persian Gulf, stating that transit by way of the Strait of Hormuz was not permitted.
Iran is ready to threaten the closing of the Strait as a result of it’s not a signatory to the United Nations Conference on the Legislation of the Sea. Oman, which controls the southern a part of the Strait, is. In line with the identical report, by March 1, over 70% of delivery had been suspended or rerouted from the Hormuz. Oil costs have already risen since Iran introduced its intention to shut the Strait.
This was not as a result of Iran laid mines or blockaded the Strait; it was merely a results of an evaluation of threat by shippers and insurers. Clearly, most discovered the danger unacceptable. Insurance coverage protection could be repriced (premiums could go up) primarily based on perceptions of actuarial threat; a rise in premiums may lead to withdrawal of insurance coverage cowl for ships that can’t afford to pay.
Ships are rerouting by way of the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa, as a result of Iran’s allies, the Yemeni Houthis, have introduced that they’ll shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait within the Purple Sea to US and Israeli ships. The results of Iran’s retaliatory strikes for world commerce, oil costs, and inflation may, ultimately, be very excessive.
Hurt to world commerce
However closing the Strait of Hormuz is maybe not the one ordnance in Iran’s arsenal to do nice hurt to world commerce. Experiences yesterday steered that Iran shelled rich suburbs of Dubai and a few key infrastructure.
Since Iran is concentrated on concentrating on and shelling US property within the area and US oil and fuel firms are important gamers within the Gulf international locations, it may direct a few of its missiles, drones and different firepower at US oil and fuel property in these international locations.
The target appears to be to stress them, to impose excessive value on them and their regional allies to drive them attempt to restrain Trump and Netanyahu. (Iran can justify such a posture by invoking reviews that the Saudi Prince Mohamed Ben Salman inspired Trump to strike, in addition to the truth that Dubai / UAE maintain a great deal of Trump property.) If Iran does this, it is going to be a really scary dimension to the conflict, which can be harmful for world commerce in oil and fuel.
Is it attainable for Iran to push the conflict on this route? It appears doubtless. All of the oil and fuel amenities within the Gulf are inside attain of Iran’s ballistic missiles. They’re additionally situated in areas of those international locations which can be predominantly Shia Muslim – Iran’s nationwide religion – who really feel oppressed and suppressed by the Sunni majorities of the Gulf states.
Equally major oil fields and ports are inside vary of Iran’s short-range missile (and even artillery!), particularly from Iran’s coast. If Gulf Shia international locations rise in solidarity with Iran, and in cahoots with Iran, start to assault, sabotage and destroy oil and fuel property, the opposed impact on the worldwide financial system may very well be extra devastating and last more than the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
The subsequent a number of days will reveal whether or not oil and fuel markets will value this extra threat in. In the event that they do, oil costs will rise considerably within the subsequent a number of weeks, and have an effect on the US summer time driving season and probably voter sentiments heading into the US mid-term elections in November.
If Trump responds to the attainable electoral injury that rising fuel costs may current to Republican candidates in November by limiting vitality exports, Europe may very well be in large bother, given the sanctions it has positioned on the import of Russian oil and fuel.
Asia, too, can be affected, and African international locations will import any inflation arising from these dangers by way of their principal buying and selling companions.
Who’s subsequent after Iran?
Additional, ought to this stuff occur, Africa’s internet oil and fuel importers can be hit very, very onerous. With ODA and all types of help largely minimize off and the debt disaster a continuing menace, Africa’s internet oil-importing international locations with little or no fiscal area may very well be pushed into very troublesome situations.
The attainable opposed financial impression apart, African international locations can be silly to assume or consider that their sovereignty shouldn’t be below menace, that they’ll escape Trump-Netanyahu. As soon as Trump and Netanyahu are satisfied that they’ve defeated and utterly pacified Iran, they’ll subsequent flip their consideration to the subsequent merchandise providing on the menu.
Which nation will or not it’s? The gobbling up and emasculation started with Lebanon / Palestine. Then Syria, Venezuela, Greenland (nonetheless hanging), and now Iran. Who’s subsequent? I strongly suspect that Africa is subsequent.
US-Israeli overseas coverage below the Trump-Netanyahu ‘Dvoika’ is sort of a palimpsest – peel off a couple of layers and what you discover from the previous is nothing completely different from the current – it’s a coverage of imperial seize, aggression, and subjugation.
President Trump, quickly after Venezuela, signalled unequivocally that different international locations are on the menu to obtain the Maduro therapy – decapitation. Cuba might be subsequent. However the armada assembled in opposition to Iran should discover a new location, a brand new object of curiosity. It’ll and should transfer.
South Africa can be subsequent. Israel has already indicated by way of a weblog that appeared within the Occasions of Israel on 2 January 2026, however largely ignored by African media, that it want to see Africa additional fragmented, starting with South Africa.
With a US base in Botswana, South Africa in all probability has little or no probability of countering any mixed US-Israeli aggression. Its inner divisions are deep, particularly alongside racial traces. White secessionists: Orania, Cape Independence Motion, Boervolk of the Orange Free State current alternatives and excuses for the Dvoika. And the nation’s pretty lengthy shoreline, a useful resource and a blessing, can be troublesome to defend. South Africa could come to rue the day it dismantled its nuclear amenities and nuclear weapons infrastructure.
Nigeria, weakened by unfathomable ranges of corruption and dishonest conversations on her inner contradictions, has already surrendered, with out firing a shot in defence of her sovereignty or uttering a whimper in protest. Somalia and Somaliland could also be a short cease on the way in which to South Africa (neither Turkey nor Egypt will come to Somalia’s help if the US and Israel station a small a part of the armada off the coast of Mogadishu to drive Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his buddies in Villa Somalia to recognise the independence of Somaliland.
Africa’s response ought to be easy: start now to ‘scream’ on the high of her voice to mobilise African public opinion. Search concrete alliances with Russia and China, and get below their nuclear umbrella if they’ve enough spare room to accommodate us. And above all, consolidate, merge, kind bigger international locations.
Fifty-four Europe-created international locations are too many. Small is gorgeous. However not within the Age of Empire. Whereas the method of merger could take lengthy, assume within the interim of making a continental armed forces, investing closely in science, expertise and innovation and in growing an African defence trade.
However above all, mobilise African society, the consciousness of Africans from Cape to Cairo, from Ras Hafun to Almides (Cape Vert). Mobilise like the way forward for the continent, her peoples and assets rely on it. As a result of it does.
The time to do this stuff, to take these actions, was yesterday. However doing them now, taking the actions as we speak, shouldn’t be too late. The fact of the resurgence of ‘would possibly is correct’ stares Africans and African international locations within the face. They don’t want Nnamdi Azikiwe, Kwame Nkrumah, Emperor Haile Selassie, Nyerere, Nasser, Ben Bella or certainly Bob Marley to rise from their graves to scream ‘Africa, Unite’. The time requires new management and new leaders.
As Ndi Igbo of Nigeria say, “Igwe bụ ike”– unity, performing collectively as one, collective motion, is extra highly effective and supplies higher assurance of success, safety and safety than performing alone. The world’s strongest cat, the lion, hunts in prides. The time to behave as one is now.
Kasirim Nwuke, with greater than 25 years {of professional} expertise, holds a PhD in economics and writes and feedback on African and world affairs.
