Republicans Sweating Tennessee Special Election For House Seat

Supply: Brett Carlsen / Getty

Off-year elections usually don’t command a lot consideration on the nationwide degree. In fact, nothing has been typical throughout President Donald Trump’s second time period. After Democrats racked up a number of important wins throughout the November elections, all eyes at the moment are on a Tennessee particular election to see whether or not they can carry that momentum into taking a Home seat in a reliably purple district.

In line with AP, the particular election was triggered in Tennessee’s seventh District after Republican Rep. Mark Inexperienced unexpectedly retired over the summer season to pursue a job within the personal sector. Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate operating to succeed Inexperienced, has over $1 million in backing from MAGA Inc. That is the primary time the Trump-focused PAC has donated cash to any marketing campaign since final yr’s presidential election, exhibiting the outsize significance of this race to the GOP.

Regardless of final yr’s elections giving Republicans management of the presidency and Congress, the speed at which the GOP has turned the nation in opposition to them throughout the first yr of Trump’s second time period is considerably spectacular. Numerous Trump’s personal voters really feel like he hasn’t delivered on his guarantees to decrease costs, together with his erratic tariff coverage truly doing the other.

Whereas immigration was a significant challenge throughout the election, a large swath of voters has been exhibiting indicators of discomfort with the authoritarian nature of the continued ICE raids nationwide. The wins by Democrats in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey throughout final month’s elections had been largely considered as a referendum on Trump Season Two, Yr One.

State Rep. Aftyn Behn, the Democratic candidate within the Tennessee particular election, is hoping to leverage the GOP’s stalling momentum right into a Home seat. She’s made affordability a spotlight of her marketing campaign and has been important of Trump’s tariff coverage and tax cuts. Whereas the GOP has run assault advertisements the place Behn might be heard saying she hates Nashville, Behn has defined that whereas she’s aggravated with the vacationer traps, she desires the town “to be a spot the place working individuals can thrive.”

Whereas it could be good for Behn to win, particularly with the GOP attempting to gerrymander their strategy to a midterms win, dropping by an in depth margin would nonetheless be a boon for Democrats. Polling reveals Behn solely trailing Van Epps by two proportion factors in a district redrawn to be extra favorable to Republicans. For reference, this can be a district Inexperienced beforehand gained by 21 factors.

“If we get with a sure variety of factors or if we flip it, that it’s going to sign to Washington Republicans that this agenda that they’ve been operating on isn’t welcomed and isn’t favorable by most voters, particularly in deep-red territory,” Behn mentioned in an interview with CNN.

Each events are conscious about the significance of the Tennessee particular election and what it might imply going into the 2026 midterms. Trump himself has been campaigning for Van Epps, showing by telephone throughout a rally on Monday and holding a tele-rally later within the day. Home Majority Speaker Mike Johnson additionally appeared throughout the rally on Monday.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris joined a canvassing kickoff for Behn whereas in Nashville for her e-book tour. Tennessee native and former Vice President Al Gore held a digital rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Monday night. The Home Majority PAC has spent $1 million on Behn’s marketing campaign, and the Your Neighborhood PAC has despatched out mailers urging Republicans to vote for unbiased candidate Jon Thorp as a substitute.

Ought to Behn win the Tennessee particular election, it could additional slim the variety of seats Democrats have to win to regain management of the Home throughout subsequent yr’s midterms. Trump has spent the final a number of months pressuring a number of purple states into uncommon, mid-decade redistricting efforts. Behn profitable a district that was already redrawn to be extra purple would sign that redistricting isn’t going to assist the GOP in the event that they proceed to disregard America’s rising affordability disaster.